Flint, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

369
FXUS63 KDTX 141803
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
203 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally cool this week.

- Dry Monday, but showers and possible storms return Tuesday
afternoon and late Wednesday/Wednesday night.

-Heaviest rainfall looks to be Wednesday night, with the potential
to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.AVIATION...

The strong convection has pushed east of the area but light showers
remain over PTK and points southeastward. The rest of the showers
should come to an end around 19Z, leading to drier northwest flow
the rest of the afternoon. There continues to be a signal in the
hires models for a mid level trough and wrap around moisture around
this mornings low to initiate a few isolated showers later this
afternoon at least for MBS, FNT, and PTK. Will leave the prob30 for
now and adjust as needed. Skies will be a bit chaotic this afternoon
as multiple layers of clouds tied to the low push east. Once the
drier air grabs hold this evening should have a strong clearing
trend overnight. Some diurnal cu will be possible Monday.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight and
Monday.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. Low
  tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 848 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

UPDATE...

Quick update to increase pops based on current trends, as the upper
level-wave enters from the midwest and takes on a neutral tilted
axis. This will support widespread deformation showers for much of
southeast Michigan during the late morning/midday hours, with with
the surface boundary slipping east. The front has already cleared
the north half of the CWA, with temps in the mid to upper 50s
reinforced by the cooler waters of Lake Huron. The hourly
temperature forecast will be very difficult for any particularly
location. The Detroit area will rise into the low to mid 70s, but
once showers spread in, temperatures will drop before a modest
recovery late in the day. With the surface front/reflection likely
east of the state by noon, severe thunderstorms are not expected due
to a lack of sufficient instability; however, heavy downpours can be
expected with any isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

DISCUSSION...

The advection of an instability axis in advance of a slow moving
prefrontal trough will sustain showers and thunderstorms across Se
Mi early this morning. A weak instability axis is forecast to slowly
exit southeast of the metro Detroit area between 15Z and 17Z. Can
not rule out isolated strong convection early this AM given the
strength of the deep layer shear overhead (0-6km bulk shear values
ranging from 35 to 60 knots, with the higher values north of the I-
69 corridor). Ascent along/in advance of an associated trough axis
will invoke an increase in the frontogenetical response in the mid
levels, resulting in the emergence of a more widespread pattern of
showers late this morning into early this afternoon. As the main
region of showers exits east, diurnal heating is shown to support
weak late day instability which combined with convergence along the
main cold front will support a chance of lingering showers during the
afternoon. The inland push of the Lake Huron marine layer has
dropped temps into the 50s across the northern thumb early this
morning. Some additional morning cooling will occur with the showers,
although model soundings suggest diurnal mixing boosting afternoon
temps into the 70s.

Seasonally strong cold air advection within northwest flow will
force 850mb temps into the single digits during the course of the
afternoon and evening. Clearing skies with sfc dewpoints dropping
into the 40s will result in a relatively chilly night as forecast
min temps will range from the mid to upper 40s (low 50s in the
Detroit urban area).

A strong upper low will remain positioned over or just south of
Hudson Bay through the week, maintaining slightly cooler than normal
temps through the forecast period. Forecast concerns will revolve
mainly around timing of mid level waves pivoting around the base of
upper low. There is reasonable agreement in timing of the next short
wave into the Great Lakes late Mon night into Tuesday. Backed flow
in advance of this wave will advect instability back into Se Mi
within increasing SW flow. Current indications among probabilistic
guidance suggests instability advection may only support weak
daytime instability across Se Mi, with the better instability
remaining just southwest of the forecast area. Nonetheless, high
chances of showers/thunderstorms will remain warranted during peak
daytime heating Tues aftn/evng. The next wave is set to arrive in
the Wed night/Thursday time frame. Longer range deterministic
solutions all indicate the instability remaining south of the state
line, with srn Mi most likely within a region of cool rain/showers.

MARINE...

Winds veer toward the northwest this morning as a cold front crosses
through the central Great Lakes. This boundary leads to some showers
and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to marginally severe.
Gradient winds increase during the day, approaching 20 knots. Small
Craft Advisory criteria be reached for parts of Saginaw Bay during
late afternoon and early evening hours, although duration should be
brief. Breezy conditions return each afternoon early next week, and
dry weather prevails through at least Tuesday morning.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......SF
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......KGK


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.